Found a good piece worth passing on: Naivety Assumes Continuance: What Five Years of Crypto Cycles Taught Me the Hard Way, a confessional rundown of what went wrong holding crypto through the 2026 cycle. The core idea applies well beyond crypto: you can learn a regime and mistake it for a law.
The 2015–2021 near-zero-rate, easy-liquidity years made “buy the dip” and “HODL everything” reliably work — not because those were universal truths, but because that specific regime rewarded them. The author carried those rules into a liquidity-driven cycle instead of a halving-driven one, and got punished for it: Bitcoin still halved from $126k to $64k in 2026 despite genuinely crypto-friendly policy (a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, the GENIUS Act, ETF approvals). Regulatory tailwinds lost to macro headwinds — tighter liquidity beat better rules.
The other uncomfortable finding: while Bitcoin was cut in half, gold hit all-time highs. That divergence undercuts the “digital gold” narrative — Bitcoin traded like a high-beta risk asset correlated to the Nasdaq, catching less of the upside while wearing the full downside.
Worth reading in full for the portfolio-construction lessons alone — particularly the point about the “bucket of plenty” venture-style approach only working if you actually harvest winners instead of holding them all the way back down, and the laddered, signal-based entry approach as an alternative to guessing a bottom date.
Read it here: for-exe.com — Naivety Assumes Continuance
Nothing on this page is financial advice. Trade your own account, manage your own risk.