Worth a read: what five years of crypto cycles taught one trader the hard way
Found a good piece worth passing on: Naivety Assumes Continuance: What Five Years of Crypto Cycles Taught Me the Hard Way, a confessional rundown of what went wrong holding crypto through the 2026 cycle. The core idea applies well beyond crypto: you can learn a regime and mistake it for a law. The 2015–2021 near-zero-rate, easy-liquidity years made “buy the dip” and “HODL everything” reliably work — not because those were universal truths, but because that specific regime rewarded them. The author carried those rules into a liquidity-driven cycle instead of a halving-driven one, and got punished for it: Bitcoin still halved from $126k to $64k in 2026 despite genuinely crypto-friendly policy (a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, the GENIUS Act, ETF approvals). Regulatory tailwinds lost to macro headwinds — tighter liquidity beat better rules. ...